USDA July WASDE trims soybean carryout — implications for Q4 meal basis
The July WASDE trimmed 2025/26 U.S. soybean carryout by 30 million bushels versus the prior print, tightening the balance sheet ahead of the harvest bid. Below we walk through the implications for Q4 domestic crush margins and, more importantly, for meal export basis into Central Asian delivery windows.
What changed in the July print
USDA reduced 2025/26 ending stocks to 285 million bushels on a combination of firmer old-crop exports and a modest downward revision to yield assumptions in the Eastern Corn Belt. Stocks-to-use tightened to 6.2%, the lowest print since the 2022/23 marketing year.
Crush margin read-through
Board crush for the Oct/Nov strip expanded roughly 22c/bu on the release. Domestic processors are incentivized to run at capacity through the fall, which supports a heavier meal production tape into Q4 — a directional negative for interior meal basis but a positive for export loadings at NOLA and PNW.
Central Asia parity
For destination buyers in Tashkent and Almaty, the print is modestly constructive. A firmer flat price is more than offset by the anticipated basis softening at origin and by container freight rates that continue to grind lower on the Vancouver–Poti rotation. Delivered parity into Central Asia for Nov/Dec is indicating $8–12/mt below the June average.
We remain constructive on Q4 meal shipments into Central Asia and are covering forward requirements for anchor counterparties in staggered tranches. Firm offers available on request.